【Article by IDAS】

Amid an increasingly volatile situation in the Taiwan Strait, the Department of International Doctoral Program in Asia-Pacific Studies (IDAS) of National Chengchi University (NCCU) hosted retired US Navy Rear Admiral Philip W. Yu. He provided key inputs from his own experience based on the theme “Holding the Line – US Indo-Pacific Strategy, Arms Sales, and Taiwan’s Road to Resilience in an Era of Chinese Military Coercion.”

RAdm Yu started by talking about his formative years - born in Chicago, he grew up in Taipei, which gave him a key understanding of the region. This later became his advantage while he was posted to various assignments in the US Navy. Thus, carrying a special affinity for Taiwan, his message was simple: Taiwan’s future cannot be understood only through military numbers or economic logic. It has to be understood through identity, political will, and the lessons of Ukraine.

As a defence attaché in Moscow before Russia invaded Ukraine, Yu watched tensions rise in real time. Looking back, he argued that many countries misunderstood the warning signs before the war. The mistake was not failing to see Russian troop movements. The mistake was asking the wrong question. People kept asking, “Will Russia invade Ukraine?” Then, when invasion became likely, they asked, “Will Ukrainians fight?” Even Ukraine itself believed it might survive only ten days because of Russia’s military strength.

But those questions missed the deeper issue: did Ukrainians see themselves as a separate people with their own identity? Once the war began, the answer became obvious. For Taiwan, he believes the real question is not military. It is whether Taiwan sees itself as having its own identity and future. For Yu, the answer is clear. Taiwan will fight, not because war is desirable, but because people who believe they belong to a place rarely give it up willingly.

RAdm Yu talked about strong similarities between Ukraine and Taiwan today. He pointed to Beijing’s increasing military pressure around Taiwan - Chinese ships and aircraft entering nearby air and maritime zones almost daily, activity in the undersea domain, and campaigns of information warfare aimed at weakening Taiwanese confidence. According to him, Chinese naval vessels now operate near Taiwan so frequently that they no longer bother pretending these are ordinary exercises.

What concerns him most is the narrative coming from Beijing. Yu noted how China’s language toward Taiwan increasingly resembles Russia’s language toward Ukraine before the invasion. Taiwan is often described not as a separate political community, but as territory waiting to be reclaimed. He said comparisons between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are becoming harder to ignore. Yu also challenged a common assumption: that economic ties will prevent war. Before 2022, many believed Russia would never invade Ukraine because doing so would damage its economy. Yet the invasion still happened. In the same way, he argued, deep trade links between China and Taiwan may not be enough to stop conflict if ideology and nationalism take priority.

Yu also held an interactive discussion with participants and students wherein he asked them to predict whether they see any sort of major action by the PRC against Taiwan in the next 2, 5, or 10 years. During the open discussion, students raised questions about democracies going to war, and also about the specific lessons the US Navy has learned from the Iran war. RAdm Yu said that it is always tough for a democracy to go to war, but at times, it is inevitable. He also argued that lessons were mainly about how to manage logistical support for the frontline troops and building anti-drone capabilities. Broadly, RAdm Yu spoke about how similarities between Ukraine and Taiwan should not be ignored and the effects of what happens in the events leading up to the actual conflicts.